ارائه الگوی اقناع ذینفعان: یک رویکرد مطالعه موردی چندگانه

Objective
The process of public policymaking in modern governance is an intricate arena of interaction between the state and a diverse array of stakeholders. The success or failure of major national policies, particularly those requiring widespread behavioral changes or imposing socioeconomic costs, hinges less on their technical or expert merits and more on the governing system’s capacity to “persuade” public opinion and secure the consent of key stakeholders. Persuasion, defined as a purposeful effort to shape, reinforce, or change attitudes and behaviors through communication, plays a vital role in this context. This research addresses a critical and persistent challenge within the Iranian public policy landscape: the “persuasion dilemma.” Despite numerous communication efforts, why do major national policies frequently fail to gain stakeholder acceptance, often culminating in social resistance and policy failure?
The primary objective of this study is to identify, articulate, and model the process of stakeholder persuasion within the context of macro-level national policymaking in Iran. The research aims to deconstruct the mechanisms, strategies, barriers, and consequences of the government’s persuasive attempts when engaging with various stakeholder groups. Ultimately, it seeks to propose an indigenous, context-specific model that can explain the successes and, more frequently, the failures of this process, thereby providing a robust analytical framework for understanding the recurring crises of legitimacy and implementation that plague even technically sound policies in the country. The study specifically investigates the interplay between contextual factors (like social capital), communicative and policy strategies (such as transparency and timing), and audience processing (the cognitive and emotional responses of stakeholders).
Research Methodology
This study employed a qualitative research approach utilizing a multiple case study strategy to ensure a rich, in-depth, and comparative understanding of the phenomenon. This method is particularly well-suited for exploring complex social processes within their natural settings and uncovering the linkages between personal, social, and organizational factors. Four prominent and high-impact policy cases were purposively selected based on a strategic set of criteria to maximize analytical breadth. These criteria included: 1) Diversity in Policy Nature (economic, social, public health), 2) Variation in Urgency and Surprise (sudden implementation vs. gradual rollout), 3) Diversity of Stakeholder Audiences, and 4) Difference in Persuasion Outcomes (clear failure vs. partial success).
The selected cases were:

The November 2019 Gasoline Price Hike: An example of an economic shock-therapy policy that triggered widespread social unrest.
The 2022 Elimination of the Preferential Exchange Rate: A major economic reform with more gradual, yet profound, societal impacts.
The Events Following the Death of Mahsa Amini in September 2022: A case representing the management of a national socio-political crisis.
The COVID-19 Vaccination Policies: A case for analyzing public health persuasion strategies during a global pandemic.

Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with four key stakeholder categories for each case: (a) Officials and Decision-Makers involved in policy formulation and execution; (b) Experts and Specialists from relevant academic and professional fields; © Social Activists and Civil Society Representatives; and (d) Affected Groups and Stakeholders who directly experienced the policies’ consequences. The collected data were then systematically analyzed using thematic analysis, which involved coding the interview transcripts to identify emergent patterns, core themes, and the relationships between them. This comparative analysis across the four cases allowed for the development of a comprehensive conceptual model of the stakeholder persuasion process.
Findings
The thematic analysis of the data culminated in the development of a conceptual model that explains the success or failure of stakeholder persuasion as a function of three interconnected dimensions:

Contextual Antecedents: The foundational layer of the model is dominated by “Social Capital and Institutional Trust.” The findings unequivocally demonstrate that the pre-existing level of public trust in government institutions acts as a critical antecedent, effectively setting a ceiling on the potential success of any persuasive effort. In contexts of low trust, even well-crafted messages are met with skepticism, and citizens are more likely to attribute negative motives to the government’s actions.
Communicative and Policy Strategies: This dimension encompasses the specific actions and choices made by the governing body during policy implementation. Key variables identified include:


Transparency vs. Secrecy: The degree to which the government is open about its plans, rationale, and the expected impacts of a policy. Secrecy was a dominant feature in failed cases.
Timing and Surprise: The choice between sudden, “shock-therapy” implementation versus a gradual, prepared rollout. Surprise tactics were found to provoke anxiety and resistance.
Stakeholder Participation vs. Exclusion: Whether key stakeholders are included in the deliberation process or entirely marginalized. Exclusion was found to delegitimize the policy.
Message Cohesion vs. Contradiction: The extent to which the government presents a unified, consistent narrative versus a cacophony of conflicting messages from different official sources.


Audience Processing and Outcomes: This dimension focuses on the stakeholder response. The strategies employed by the government influence how stakeholders process the information. The findings, consistent with the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM), show that in failed cases (e.g., the gasoline price hike), the combination of low trust, secrecy, surprise, and message incoherence led the public to bypass the central route of processing (which involves careful consideration of the policy’s merits). Instead, they relied on the peripheral route, using cues like the perceived lack of credibility of the source (government) and negative emotions. This activated a collective sense of grievance, allowed competing narratives from rival sources to dominate the public sphere, and ultimately resulted in widespread social resistance and policy failure. Conversely, in the more (partially) successful case of COVID-19 vaccination, a more transparent (though imperfect) communication strategy and the high perceived threat of the virus facilitated greater public acceptance.

Discussion & Conclusion
This study reveals that the stakeholder persuasion process in Iran’s macro-policymaking is a complex interplay between source credibility (institutional trust), message strategy (communication choices), and the socio-political context. The recurrent failures in public persuasion are not merely technical shortcomings in communication but are rooted in a chronic “persuasion dilemma.” This dilemma is characterized by a systemic disregard for the foundational role of social capital, a consistent failure to adhere to principles of transparency and participation, and an inability to proactively manage the public narrative.
The analysis of the case studies demonstrates a recurring pattern: policies are often formulated in insulated circles, excluding the very people they will affect. The implementation strategy then relies on secrecy and surprise, under the flawed assumption that this will preempt opposition. When the policy is finally announced, the government is immediately on the defensive, attempting to justify its actions in a low-trust environment where its narrative is already compromised. This approach creates a fertile ground for public anger and resistance, ensuring that even policies with sound expert justification face a crisis of legitimacy and fail at the implementation stage.
The model developed in this research underscores a critical lesson for policymakers: persuasion is not a post-hoc activity to be undertaken after a decision is made; it is an integral part of the entire policymaking cycle. Rebuilding institutional trust and adopting transparent, participatory, and coherent communication strategies are not optional extras but are vital prerequisites for enhancing the persuasive capacity of the governing system. Without a fundamental shift away from the paradigm of “decide-announce-defend” towards one of “dialogue-deliberate-decide,” the cycle of policy failure and public discontent is likely to persist. This research provides a diagnostic tool for understanding these failures and a prescriptive framework for building a more effective and legitimate approach to governance.