نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه مدیریت رسانه، دانشکده علوم ارتباطات اجتماعی، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران.
2 استادیار، گروه مدیریت رسانه، دانشکده علوم ارتباطات، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Objective
In the face of rapid technological advancements, media organizations are undergoing fundamental transformations that impact not only their content production and distribution mechanisms but also their internal leadership structures. This study aims to explore the future of leadership in media organizations by the year 2030, focusing on how emerging technologies reshape leadership roles, competencies, and responsibilities.
To systematically analyze this future landscape, the research adopts Pilkan’s Five-Factor Futures Model, which categorizes driving forces of the future into five analytical dimensions: Constants, Trends, Contradictions, Uncertainties, and Wildcards. The novelty of this research lies in combining this futures framework with contemporary leadership theories such as Digital Leadership, Distributed Leadership, and Complexity Leadership, enabling a multidimensional examination of both technological disruptions and leadership adaptation.
This integrated approach aims to go beyond conventional forecasting by identifying deep structural forces, strategic tensions, and non-linear possibilities that future media leaders will need to navigate, ranging from automation and AI governance to ethical dilemmas, decentralized decision-making, and organizational redesign.
Research Methodology
The research is conducted within the futures studies framework, utilizing a documentary qualitative method based on deductive thematic analysis. The data set comprises over 40 scholarly sources, including peer-reviewed journal articles, books, think-tank reports, and international policy documents published between 2015 and 2023.
The analysis follows these key steps:
Selection of credible sources relevant to media leadership, technological change, and strategic foresight.
Coding of texts using predefined categories based on Pilkan’s model.
Thematic categorization of extracted insights into the five futures factors.
Interpretive analysis grounded in modern leadership theories, assessing the implications of each factor.
A visual flowchart of the analytic process was developed to ensure systematic classification, and triangulation of sources was used to reinforce reliability, especially for overlapping factors that appeared in more than one domain.
Findings
The findings are organized into five major categories aligned with Pilkan’s model:
Constants
These are enduring factors shaping media leadership regardless of technological shifts. The study identified key constants such as:
The need for effective leadership that balances vision, ethics, and adaptability.
The importance of public trust, transparency, and professional integrity.
The role of regulatory frameworks, which remain essential even as platforms evolve.
Commitment to organizational values and cultural identity.
These constants echo foundational leadership traits but are increasingly expected to be enacted within dynamic and hybrid work environments.
Trends
Several irreversible technological trends are shaping the leadership landscape, including:
Integration of AI in editorial decision-making and content personalization.
Big data analytics for real-time audience insight and strategic planning.
Expansion of immersive media (e.g., AR/VR) transforming user engagement.
Rising emphasis on cybersecurity and ethical content governance.
These trends demand a transition from traditional hierarchical leadership to data-driven, agile, and cross-functional leadership styles that are more collaborative and adaptive to fast-changing digital contexts.
Contradictions
The study highlighted critical tensions media leaders must manage:
The paradox between innovation and sustainability—rapid tech adoption vs. long-term ecological and social responsibility.
Conflict between freedom of expression and content moderation, intensified by misinformation and platform politics.
Tension between human judgment and algorithmic decision-making.
Struggle between globalization and local identity preservation in leadership communication.
Such contradictions require leaders to demonstrate ethical sensitivity, strategic flexibility, and negotiation skills across stakeholder groups, while maintaining their credibility and authority.
Uncertainties
Future trajectories remain unclear in areas such as:
Whether AI-driven leadership tools will enhance or replace human decision-making.
The employee response to organizational transformation—resistance or innovation?
Volatility in advertising markets driven by platform monopolies and data privacy laws.
The evolution of global media regulation—will national sovereignty prevail or global harmonization emerge?
These uncertainties call for adaptive leadership capacities, foresight literacy, and scenario-based strategic planning to reduce vulnerability and enhance organizational agility.
Wildcards
Several unexpected and high-impact possibilities emerged, including:
The rise of non-human leaders—AI agents making editorial decisions independently.
Fully automated newsrooms that challenge traditional leadership hierarchies.
Breakthrough communication technologies (e.g., quantum or unhackable systems).
Ethical crises caused by AI interacting with vulnerable audiences.
These wildcards could radically reshape leadership roles, structures, and accountability systems, demanding readiness for disruptive and transformative futures.
Discussion & Conclusion
The study demonstrates that the future of media leadership is neither linear nor easily predictable. Instead, it unfolds at the intersection of enduring leadership values, accelerating technological change, and complex socio-political dynamics. The research contributes to theory by synthesizing futures thinking with contemporary leadership models, offering a novel framework for navigating strategic media transitions.
Practically, it suggests that media organizations should:
Develop leadership readiness indices to measure adaptability.
Redesign leadership training based on uncertainty management and scenario thinking.
Create interdisciplinary innovation hubs for joint strategy development between media, technology, and ethics professionals.
Establish real-time futures monitoring systems for tracking weak signals and emerging challenges.
Ultimately, transformational leadership—augmented by foresight, ethical intelligence, and systems thinking—will be the cornerstone of resilient media organizations capable of thriving amid disruption and complexity.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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