بررسی رابطه آینده‌نگاری راهبردی و فناوری‌های رسانه‌ای در مدل‌‏های کسب‌وکار

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه مدیریت بازرگانی، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

2 کارشناس ارشد، گروه مدیریت کارآفرینی سازمانی، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.

3 دکتری، گروه کارآفرینی ـ تکنولوژی، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، واحد قزوین، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، قزوین، ایران.

چکیده

هدف: انقلاب دیجیتال و گسترش فناوری‌های نوین در رسانه، تعاملات اجتماعی و مراودات اقتصادی کسب‌وکارها را تغییر داده است، صاحبان مشاغل برای حفظ سهم بازار و گسترش آن، به تغییر مدل کسب‌وکار خود به نفع توسعه رسانه نیازمندند. چنین تصمیم‌ها و تغییرهایی در مدل کسب‌وکار، از آینده‌نگری صاحبان کسب‌وکارها تأثیر می‌پذیرد که عنصر اصلی تغییر هوشمندانه و ایجاد ارزش نوآورانه است.
روش: پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف، کاربردی و از نظر نحوه گردآوری داده‌ها، توصیفی ـ پیمایشی است. جامعه آماری پژوهش، استادان دانشگاه، دانشجویان مقطع دکتری و افراد فعال در حوزه رسانه و کسب‌وکارهای این حوزه در ایران را شامل می‌شود. روش نمونه‌گیری استفاده‌شده در این پژوهش، نمونه‌گیری تصادفی ساده بود که 240 نفر به‌عنوان نمونه پژوهش انتخاب شد. تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها با استفاده از روش مدل‌یابی معادلات ساختاری و نرم‌افزار اسمارت پی‌ال‌اس 3 انجام شده است.
یافته‌ها: رابطه مثبت و معنادار مؤلفه آینده‌نگاری راهبردی، خلق ارزش و فناوری‌های نوین رسانه‌ای بر گسترش مدل‌های کسب‌وکار رسانه‌ای تأیید شد. بیشترین مقدار معناداری و ضریب تأثیر، متوجه آینده‌نگاری راهبردی بر مدل کسب‌وکار است که ضرورت توجه ویژه به آیبهآآآاینده نده‌نگاری راهبردی را آشکار می‌سازد.
نتیجه‌گیری: این مطالعه نشان می‌دهد که مدل‌های کسب‌وکار، متأثر از آینده‌نگاری راهبردی، خلق ارزش در کسب‌وکار و بهره‌مندی از فناوری‌های نوین دیجیتال در حوزه رسانه است. توسعه مدل کسب‌وکار را می‌توان در ساختار آینده‌نگاری تحقق بخشید و با اتکا به این مؤلفه نیز می‌توان ابزار برنامه‌ریزی قدرتمندی برای استفاده هوشمندانه و پیشتازانه در کسب‌وکار از فناوری‌های رسانه‌ای ارائه داد.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Relationship between Strategic Foresight and Media Technologies in Business Models

نویسندگان [English]

  • Aidin Salamzadeh 1
  • Morteza Hadizadeh 2
  • Samira Sadat Mortazavi 3
1 Assistant Prof., Department of Business Management, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2 MSc., Department of Organizational Entrepreneurship Management, Faculty of Management, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Ph.D., Department of Technology - Entrepreneurship, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Objective
The emergence and widespread growth of digital technologies, such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, and data mining is the driving force in changing the infrastructure of traditional media to digital media. It brings cultural, fundamental, and technological changes in business models. In this process, previously successful retailers need to develop web-based stores, mobile apps, and digital marketing in social networks to defend their market share to increase their communication and relationship with customer by integrating the physical and online worlds. Digital technologies allow retailers to develop new products or services as well as innovative forms of relationships with their stakeholders to create business dynamics. Dynamics are enhanced through social media analysis and competitive intelligence processes (including planning, collecting, analyzing and disseminating information at the level of digital media) and leading to ease of use, accelerated responsiveness and a realizing customer experience. Thus, extensive access to social media to enhance interaction with stakeholders and potential customers and share content is defined as a new value in business models. Strategic foresight makes it possible to identify and analyze these technologies and digital media and their changes. Strategic foresight as a systematic, forward-looking, analytical and interactive process contributes to shared insights about long-term developments in science, technology, industry and society. Hence, the present aims to evaluate the relationship between strategic foresight and the expansion of business models and the use of media technologies. This study can be an important step in identifying the future developments of media technologies on business models. Therefore, the present study present an abstract model by considering its target population of experts, specialists, policymakers and media business owners in Iran and reviews the background of valid domestic and foreign studies and activities.
Research Methodology
The present study is applied in terms of aim and descriptive-survey in terms of collecting data in 2021. The statistical population of the study includes faculty members and PhD students in the fields of future studies, entrepreneurship and media management, studying in the academic year of 2020 and 2021 as well as managers and experts active in the areas of information and communication technology from the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting Organization and the owners of startups active in the area of media, located in the science and technology park of Qazvin province, operating in the areas of new technology, media and media-oriented businesses. Owing to the novelty of business models based on new media technologies; experts were used who had more specialized knowledge regarding the use of new media technologies. The research sample size was determined to be 240 people according to the initial screening based on the identification of adaptable people based on the target criteria, 638 people were selected, based on Cochran's formula with an error level of 0.05. Based on the Morgan table and using a convenience random sampling method, a researcher-made electronic questionnaire was sent to 270 experts, and finally 247 completed questionnaires were received. The questionnaire was developed in a five-point Likert scale and included 4 main components, 17 items and 3 questions for each item, and a total of 51 questions. Structural equation modeling method with partial least squares approach and PLS Smart 3 Software were used to test the hypotheses and research model.
Findings
Average variance extracted for all structures is higher than 5, confirming the validity of the constructs. Cronbach's alpha for constructs is higher than 0.7 and the composite reliability is also higher than 0.7. Also, the reliability of the constructs is also confirmed. In the evaluation of the quantitative model fit, all cases indicate a strong fit for the research model and its numerical value is greater than 1.96.
Discussion & Conclusion
New technologies have become important in the formation of new media businesses. The rapid growth of technological forms in society and industry has provided many opportunities. The survival of media businesses requires gaining accurate knowledge of appropriate and effective developments and strategies in the future. While reviewing the literature of previous studies, the results presented here indicate a key gap that results from the lack of theory-based predictions about the future uses of digital media technology in the development of business models. This gap is important since companies make significant investments annually in media and digital technology development to increase social interactions. Executive decisions are critical to desired uses of digital technology. Some technology-based companies have succeeded in building value based on media development in their business model, while others have failed to use digital technology effectively.
Thus, the management structure to achieve the media development of the business model needs to use strategic foresight to examine the theories in predicting how to use digital media technology. Strategic foresight is a structured and systematic method to use future ideas to predict and better preparation for change and examine different acceptable futures that may arise, as well as paying attention to the opportunities and challenges that they can present. Business owners can use these ideas for better decision making and taking efficient measures. First, strategic foresight helps business owners develop a success strategy by examining the uncertainties in the future environment of businesses, and second, it can result in value creation in businesses by considering market development trends. The created value will be affected by digital technologies and will cause effective changes in business models. First, the present study helps to develop and apply strategic foresight in businesses. It indicates that the business model theory can be adopted in the foresight framework and thus can provide a powerful planning tool for the company's future use of digital technology. Second, given the importance of value creation in increasing the performance and survival of businesses, this study reveals that the realization of this value requires a well-developed foresight. This study aims to predict the creation and increase of the economic value of businesses to provide media development technology.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Strategic foresight
  • Value creation
  • New media technologies
  • Business model

مراجع

منابع
سلام‌زاده، آیدین؛‏ هادی‌زاده، مرتضی و مرتضوی، سمیراسادات (1400). تحقق آموزش کارآفرینانه آنلاین مبتنی بر فناوری‌های نوین دیجیتال در ایران با رویکرد سناریونویسی. فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی توسعه کارآفرینی، 14(3)، 481-500.
 doi: 10.22059/jed.2021.319839.653617
محمدحسینی، بابک؛ ‏هادی‌زاده، مرتضی و قافله‌باشی، سید فهیم (1399). پیشران‌های ارائه خدمات سایبری پایدار در دولت با تأکید بر حفظ امنیت از طریق هوش مصنوعی. آینده پژوهی ایران، 5(2)، 35-65. doi: 10.30479/jfs.2021.14002.1221
 
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دوره 1، شماره 2
1401
صفحه 189-212

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